Analyst embarrassed: says non-Blu-ray PS3 incoming
Wednesday, 25 Feb 2009 11:44

PlayStation 3
Industry analyst Mike Hickey of Janco Partners believes a PlayStation 3 price-cut is imminent. He embarrasses himself by claiming that it'll be the removal of the console's Blu-ray drive that'll help Sony make the cut.
In his latest industry note and posted on
Gamedaily.com, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey reveals that a PlayStation 3 price-cut is probably-maybe on the way. He states that "recent channel checks indicate increased speculation for a PS3 price cut announcement from Sony in the next couple of days."
This in itself isn't laughable. I personally agree that all signs point to a PlayStation 3 price-cut sooner rather than later. In fact,
I argued that April 2009 would be the perfect time for such a cut.
April will mark the end of Sony's 2008 fiscal-year, meaning a price-cut won't impact the Games Division's 2008 profits. A cut is likely to occur after March 31st since the company can make their losses up during the 2009 fiscal-year.
Unlike Hickey though, I don't believe the announcement will come in the next few days. Not only for the above reason, but because Sony will want to corner Killzone 2 consumers that will buy the console especially for the game. After they've made the jump, the price-cut can attract a whole new set of buyers.
However, what do I know? I'm no analyst! Hickey is, and he believes that the cut has already been brought to the attention of retailers:
"Sony is meeting with retailers this week in Phoenix, where SCEA is holding its annual Destination PlayStation conference. We think the company needs to reduce the current price by $100 to effectively restart unit velocity at retail."
This is perfectly fine, but Hickey believes that Sony will afford the cut with the following strategy:
"We are also hearing continued speculation that Sony is working on a non-Blu-ray PS3 console, which could enable them to make the aforementioned hardware price reduction."
A non-Blu-ray PlayStation 3? Riiight. That'd make sense, since who wants to buy a PlayStation 3 that plays Blu-ray films and...PlayStation 3 games!?
Perhaps Sony will begin releasing PS3 games on DVD's
and Blu-rays. Or perhaps they're ahead of the game and will releases all of their titles digitally. Still, that leaves all previously released PlayStation 3 games in the lurch. 'Hey, buy the new cheap PlayStation 3 that can't play Metal Gear Solid 4, LittleBigPlanet or Killzone 2!'
What's a PlayStation 3 without a Blu-ray drive? Since it can't play PlayStation 3 or PlayStation 2 games - it's simply a PlayStation 1 that can play DVDs. Splendid. I'll buy one of those for £40 please. Now that's a price-cut!
Nonetheless, Hickey does make a reasonable point by stating the obvious:
"We believe the market is expecting a PS3 price cut in April or by June (E3) at the latest, so a near term aggressive pricing decision by Sony could provide a positive catalyst for video game related stocks including GameStop, Activision and Take-Two Interactive.
"If Sony does not cut the price of their console, we expect the continuation of languishing PS3 hardware sales and the potential for publishers to accelerate their reallocation of resources away from the PS3 console."
It's a harsh warning to Sony, but we doubt they'll be removing the drive from the console that won the high-definition format war.
I also thought I'd bring your attention to an article from our friends at
D+Pad magazine. Published in November, the article correctly details the
God of War III trailer shown this month, as well as the existence of PSP versions of MotorStorm and LittleBigPlanet, which were
only announced yesterday.
The significance of the article is that it also states that Sony will get more competitive on the PlayStation 3's price from March 2009 onwards. So don't be surprised when the cut comes at the end of next month.
Patrick Steen